Forecasters Predict an Omicron Peak
An infectious disease modelling group led by Jeffrey Shaman at Columbia University projects that infections could peak in mid-January. But making a prediction has been made more difficult since we’re just coming out of the holiday period. “Projecting the Covid-19 burden is also more difficult now because of the December holidays,” writes Shaman in an opinion piece for the New York Times. “Reporting of cases is often delayed during the two weeks beginning shortly before Christmas until shortly after New Year’s Day.”
Shaman and his team found that we are likely to see more cases of the coronavirus this month than in any previous month in the pandemic. It’s also likely that a smaller proportion of those cases will lead to hospitalization and deaths, but the sheer volume of cases could mean that hospital systems are overwhelmed. Experts are still debating if omicron leads to less severe disease, but we are still seeing a significant level of hospitalizations and deaths to be concerned about.
